When we wrote a few weeks ago about Monsoons, weather reporters and scientists still had a somewhat hopeful outlook for potential monsoon storms to come. With ideals that storms were just delayed due to a wetter than normal winter and a dryer summer that was prohibiting moisture, many hoped the rains would still be on their way, we just needed to be patient.
However, we all know the weather is a fickle thing, and here we sit just two weeks later with a much more bleak prediction – our monsoon season being called a “Non-soon” season.
Azfamily.com says, “as we look to September, we don’t have great news. The new 30-day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center puts Arizona in a category of ‘equal chances.’ That means we have equal chances to have more rain than average, or less. Flip a coin.”
With wildfires burning statewide and things getting dryer by the day, that isn’t a very reassuring statement. We need rain, not ‘flip a coin and hope for the best.’
The article went on to state, “So far, we’ve only had 0.27” of rain at Sky Harbor Airport. We’re more than 80% behind normal summer rainfall… If for some strange reason we get no more rain before Sept. 30, the end of the monsoon, it will go down as the driest monsoon on record.”
We don’t know about you, but seeing the words “driest monsoon on record” are both depressing and scary. We live in the desert! We need water! The animals and vegetation need water! Otherwise the plants dry up and make for quick tinder, and the animals start moving inland in search of water. Not only that, but we love our summer monsoons with their crazy flashes and cracks of lightning, gusting winds, and torrential downpours. We’d hate to think that they’re over before they even really begun. However, as much as we might want to, we can’t control the weather, and a lack-luster monsoon season might just be something we’ll have to deal with should the rains never come.
Holding out for winter rains and snows might have been promising, only those aren’t having the best predicted outlooks either… “We’re much more dependent on the winter snow. But, there’s more potential bad news. The latest winter outlook for January, February and March 2020 shows, again, just ‘equal’ chances of more or less precipitation.”
In short, our moisture outlook for the remainder of the monsoon season, and into the winter season, is a gamble. With a 50/50 chance of rain through the end of the year and into winter, I guess we will just have to stay hopeful and take what we can get!